The global stock markets in 2018 ended in a maelstrom of volatility. The markets declined significantly in the fourth quarter, this being the second major pullback of the year. This marks the first time in nine years that the S & amp; P 500 posted a negative return for the year (-4.4%). Most developed markets had double-digit declines with some defensive asset classes turning in positive results.
The fourth quarter wiped out gains across global markets. The S&P returned a negative -13.52%, the MSCI All Country World fell -12.65% and the Nasdaq declined -17.28%.
2019 will start with an economy approaching its longest expansion in history – with more consecutive months of job gains than any prior expansion and a job market that continues to grow. Inflation is close to the Fed’s target of 2%, and the unemployment rate is its lowest in decades. There doesn’t appear to be glaring investment or financial imbalances. Economic fundamentals are slowing but still relatively strong as the year begins, typically not a bad setup for equity markets.
Some Of The Point
The finish of 2019 was stark, and pleasant, in contrast to the same time period in 2018. Global stock markets enjoyed strong growth in Q4. Bonds had positive returns at the end of the year also, but saw the majority of their returns early in 2019. Nearly every major investment index had above average returns for the year 2019. The finish of 2019 was stark, and pleasant, in contrast to the same time period in 2018. Global stock markets enjoyed strong growth in Q4. Bonds had positive returns at the end of the year also, but saw the majority of their returns early in 2019. Nearly every major investment index had above average returns for the year 2019.
- Predicting short-term returns on investment markets is a rather fickle thing to do, and very few people do it well.
- The talking heads of financial media are predictably going to tell you about how stock markets perform in election years, as we approach November 3rd.
- Many of the pundits claimed that a Narendra Modi victory in 2013 would plummet the stock markets.
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